Bright key facts / Demonstrated
Forecasting more than one future.
GenCast used machine learning to generate ensembles of possible weather outcomes up to 15 days ahead.
- AI’s role
- A diffusion model generated probabilistic global forecasts.
- Documented result
- The research reported stronger skill than the comparison operational ensemble on the evaluated targets.
- Important limitation
- Retrospective evaluation is not proof of operational benefit in every region or extreme event.