Bright
← All living questionsONGOING QUESTION / Climate · Earth

How much earlier could we understand what is coming?

Forecast skill, uncertainty and whether useful warnings reach people with time to act.

These are editorial connections, not a chain of causation or a shared score of progress.

Tomorrow has more than one shape.

Three places. One dated forecast capture. Explore what was predicted, without confusing it with what happened.

Explore · The dated forecast

Following and a reading bookmark stay on this device.

The evidence so far

DISCOVERY

A world-class forecast now fits on one machine.

Weather forecasting has spent fifty years as one of the largest users of supercomputing. AI models trained on the archive now produce comparable global forecasts in minutes, and the weights are published. The measurements they depend on are the part that has not become cheap.

Source published 2025-12-17 · Deployed
DISCOVERY

Forecasting more than one future.

GenCast used machine learning to generate ensembles of possible weather outcomes up to 15 days ahead.

Source published 2024-12-04 · Demonstrated
DISCOVERY

Physics meets learning.

NeuralGCM combined atmospheric physics with machine learning for weather and climate modeling.

Source published 2024-07-22 · Demonstrated
DISCOVERY

More time before the flood.

Researchers demonstrated useful river-flood forecasts in watersheds with no local streamflow gauges.

Source published 2024-03-20 · Demonstrated
DISCOVERY

A faster view of the weather.

GraphCast produced skillful medium-range global weather forecasts using a learned model.

Source published 2023-11-14 · Demonstrated
DISCOVERY

Weather in three dimensions.

Pangu-Weather demonstrated medium-range forecasting with three-dimensional neural networks.

Source published 2023-07-05 · Demonstrated

Take the next step through the evidence.

Open a record to inspect its original source, limitations and unresolved questions. Try the linked instruments where this question has one. Following keeps this question in your next reading view.

What moved? ↗