The forecast competition leaves its data open. ↗
ECMWF released JJA 2026 forecast files and regional scores for an open framework comparing AI and hybrid subseasonal weather systems.
Source published 2026-09-14 · Deployed← All living questionsONGOING QUESTION / Climate · EarthDISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY DISCOVERY EXPERIENCE
How much earlier could we understand what is coming?
Forecast skill, uncertainty and whether useful warnings reach people with time to act.
These are editorial connections, not a chain of causation or a shared score of progress.
A CLOSER LOOK / WEATHER
Tomorrow has more than one shape.
Three places. One dated forecast capture. Explore what was predicted, without confusing it with what happened.
Explore · The dated forecast →Following and a reading bookmark stay on this device.
The evidence so far
A global forecast that can refresh with the hour. ↗
Google DeepMind announced WeatherNext 3 with hourly refreshes, higher-resolution precipitation and clean-energy variables, and integration into Google products.
Source published 2026-09-03 · DeployedA flood map reaches places without gauges. ↗
Google describes Flood Hub coverage in 150 countries for more than two billion people and Groundsource's use of public disaster reports to extend urban flash-flood forecasting.
Source published 2026-08-18 · DeployedA twelve-hour earlier clue to where the Sun may change. ↗
NASA reports that a COFFIES machine-learning model can predict the appearance of solar active regions, including far-side emergence, up to 12 hours before they appear.
Source published 2026-08-14 · ExperimentalA world-class forecast now fits on one machine. ↗
Weather forecasting has spent fifty years as one of the largest users of supercomputing. AI models trained on the archive now produce comparable global forecasts in minutes, and the weights are published. The measurements they depend on are the part that has not become cheap.
Source published 2025-12-17 · DeployedA weather-model test ran faster on NOAA’s new research computer. ↗
NOAA EPIC reports that one named Unified Forecast System regression test ran about 30–40% faster on Ursa than on Hera under the Intel compiler—a development result, not evidence of a more accurate forecast.
Source published 2025-08-22 · DemonstratedA smoke alert still reaches a person. ↗
NVIDIA reports that Pano uses human-in-the-loop AI detection and alerts for wildfire monitoring.
Source published 2025-05-08 · DeployedFrom research to the forecast desk. ↗
ECMWF brought its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System into operational service.
Source published 2025-02-25 · DeployedForecasting more than one future. ↗
GenCast used machine learning to generate ensembles of possible weather outcomes up to 15 days ahead.
Source published 2024-12-04 · DemonstratedPhysics meets learning. ↗
NeuralGCM combined atmospheric physics with machine learning for weather and climate modeling.
Source published 2024-07-22 · DemonstratedMore time before the flood. ↗
Researchers demonstrated useful river-flood forecasts in watersheds with no local streamflow gauges.
Source published 2024-03-20 · DemonstratedA faster view of the weather. ↗
GraphCast produced skillful medium-range global weather forecasts using a learned model.
Source published 2023-11-14 · DemonstratedWeather in three dimensions. ↗
Pangu-Weather demonstrated medium-range forecasting with three-dimensional neural networks.
Source published 2023-07-05 · DemonstratedFrom observation to warning. ↗
Follow what changes between observing the atmosphere, estimating its state, forecasting and making a human decision.
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